Modelling study to estimate the health burden of foodborne diseases: cases, general practice consultations and hospitalisations in the UK, 2009.

OBJECTIVE: To generate estimates of the burden of UK-acquired foodborne disease accounting for uncertainty. DESIGN: A modelling study combining data from national public health surveillance systems for laboratory-confirmed infectious intestinal disease (IID) and outbreaks of foodborne disease and 2 prospective, population-based studies of IID in the community. The underlying data sets covered the time period 1993-2008. We used Monte Carlo simulation and a Bayesian approach, using a systematic review to generate Bayesian priors. We calculated point estimates with 95% credible intervals (CrI). SETTING: UK, 2009. OUTCOME MEASURES: Pathogen-specific estimates of the number of cases, general practice (GP) consultations and hospitalisations for foodborne disease in the UK in 2009. RESULTS: Bayesian approaches gave slightly more conservative estimates of overall health burden (∼511 000 cases vs 566 000 cases). Campylobacter is the most common foodborne pathogen, causing 280 400 (95% CrI 182 503-435 693) food-related cases and 38 860 (95% CrI 27 160-55 610) GP consultations annually. Despite this, there are only around 562 (95% CrI 189-1330) food-related hospital admissions due to Campylobacter, reflecting relatively low disease severity. Salmonella causes the largest number of hospitalisations, an estimated 2490 admissions (95% CrI 607-9631), closely followed by Escherichia coli O157 with 2233 admissions (95% CrI 170-32 159). Other common causes of foodborne disease include Clostridium perfringens, with an estimated 79 570 cases annually (95% CrI 30 700-211 298) and norovirus with 74 100 cases (95% CrI 61 150-89 660). Other viruses and protozoa ranked much lower as causes of foodborne disease. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 models yielded similar estimates of the burden of foodborne illness in the UK and show that continued reductions in Campylobacter, Salmonella, E. coli O157, C. perfringens and norovirus are needed to mitigate the impact of foodborne disease

Ethnic variation in outcome of people hospitalised during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Wales (UK):an analysis of national surveillance data using Onomap, a name-based ethnicity classification tool

Objective To identify ethnic differences in proportion positive for SARS-CoV-2, and proportion hospitalised, proportion admitted to intensive care and proportion died in hospital with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave in Wales.Design Descriptive analysis of 76 503 SARS-CoV-2 tests carried out in Wales to 31 May 2020. Cohort study of 4046 individuals hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19 between 1 March and 31 May. In both analyses, ethnicity was assigned using a name-based classifier.Setting Wales (UK).Primary and secondary outcomes Admission to an intensive care unit following hospitalisation with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. Death within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.Results Using a name-based ethnicity classifier, we found a higher proportion of black, Asian and ethnic minority people tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR tested positive, compared with those classified as white. Hospitalised black, Asian and minority ethnic cases were younger (median age 53 compared with 76 years; p<0.01) and more likely to be admitted to intensive care. Bangladeshi (adjusted OR (aOR): 9.80, 95% CI 1.21 to 79.40) and ‘white – other than British or Irish’ (aOR: 1.99, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.44) ethnic groups were most likely to be admitted to intensive care unit. In Wales, older age (aOR for over 70 years: 10.29, 95% CI 6.78 to 15.64) and male gender (aOR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.59), but not ethnicity, were associated with death in hospitalised patients.Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19. During the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Wales, although ethnic minority populations were less likely to be tested and less likely to be hospitalised, those that did attend hospital were younger and more likely to be admitted to intensive care. Primary, secondary and tertiary COVID-19 prevention should target ethnic minority communities in Wales

Changes in serogroup and genotype prevalence among carried meningococci in the United Kingdom during vaccine implementation.

BACKGROUND: Herd immunity is important in the effectiveness of conjugate polysaccharide vaccines against encapsulated bacteria. A large multicenter study investigated the effect of meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine introduction on the meningococcal population. METHODS: Carried meningococci in individuals aged 15-19 years attending education establishments were investigated before and for 2 years after vaccine introduction. Isolates were characterized by multilocus sequence typing, serogroup, and capsular region genotype and changes in phenotypes and genotypes assessed. RESULTS: A total of 8462 meningococci were isolated from 47 765 participants (17.7%). Serogroup prevalence was similar over the 3 years, except for decreases of 80% for serogroup C and 40% for serogroup 29E. Clonal complexes were associated with particular serogroups and their relative proportions fluctuated, with 12 statistically significant changes (6 up, 6 down). The reduction of ST-11 complex serogroup C meningococci was probably due to vaccine introduction. Reasons for a decrease in serogroup 29E ST-254 meningococci (from 1.8% to 0.7%) and an increase in serogroup B ST-213 complex meningococci (from 6.7% to 10.6%) were less clear. CONCLUSIONS: Natural fluctuations in carried meningococcal genotypes and phenotypes a can be affected by the use of conjugate vaccines, and not all of these changes are anticipatable in advance of vaccine introduction

Identifying outbreaks of sexually transmitted infection: who cares?

BACKGROUND: Current routine surveillance schemes for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the United Kingdom (UK) are not designed for outbreak identification. Recognising STI outbreaks, therefore, depends almost entirely on the alertness of health professionals. The objective of this study was to explore health professionals' knowledge of, and attitudes towards, identification and investigation of STI outbreaks in Wales. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in Wales in June 2005, and sent a questionnaire to consultants of genitourinary medicine (GUM, n = 11), a consultant microbiologist from each laboratory (n = 14), all consultants in communicable disease control (n = 5), and to epidemiologists of the National Public Health Service (n = 4). RESULTS: 26 (76%) of 34 survey recipients responded. Of these, 17 (65%) ranked the investigation of STI outbreaks as important or very important, and 19 (73%) perceived participation in the investigation of an STI outbreak as part of their responsibility. Only six (25%) respondents had actively searched their computer system or patient records for a possible STI outbreak in the previous twelve months, and 15 (63%) had never looked for an outbreak. Of seven GUM physicians who said they had identified at least one STI outbreak, three had never informed public health authorities. CONCLUSION: Prompt identification and coordinated investigation of outbreaks, usually through a multidisciplinary outbreak control team, is central to the control of many infectious diseases. This does not appear to be the case for STIs, which we believe represents a lost opportunity to reduce transmission. Besides improved surveillance methods, a change in culture towards STI outbreaks is needed among health professionals in Wales

Sentinel surveillance for travellers' diarrhoea in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Travellers' diarrhoea is the most common health problem among international travellers and much of the burden falls on general practitioners. We assessed whether sentinel surveillance based in primary care could be used to monitor changes in the epidemiology of travellers' diarrhoea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A sentinel surveillance scheme of 30 volunteer general practices distributed throughout Wales provides weekly reports of consultations for eight infectious diseases to the national Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. Travellers' diarrhoea was introduced as a new reportable infection in July 2002.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 1 July 2002 and 31 March 2005 there were 90 reports of travellers' diarrhoea. The mean annual consultation rate was 15.2 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 12.2–18.7), with the highest rates in summer, in people aged 15–24 years, and in travellers to Southern Europe. A higher proportion of travellers than expected had visited destinations outside Europe and North America when compared to the proportion of all United Kingdom travellers visiting these destinations (38% vs. 11%; Chi²= 53.3, p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Sentinel surveillance has the potential to monitor secular trends in travellers' diarrhoea and to help characterise population groups or travel destinations associated with higher risk.</p

Role of China in the Quest to Define and Control Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

China holds the key to solving many questions crucial to global control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The disease appears to have originated in Guangdong Province, and the causative agent, SARS coronavirus, is likely to have originated from an animal host, perhaps sold in public markets. Epidemiologic findings, integral to defining an animal-human linkage, may then be confirmed by laboratory studies; once animal host(s) are confirmed, interventions may be needed to prevent further animal-to-human transmission. Community seroprevalence studies may help determine the basis for the decline in disease incidence in Guangdong Province after February 2002. China will also be able to contribute key data about how the causative agent is transmitted and how it is evolving, as well as identifying pivotal factors influencing disease outcome. There must be support for systematically addressing these fundamental questions in China and rapidly disseminating results

Hazards of Healthy Living: Bottled Water and Salad Vegetables as Risk Factors for Campylobacter Infection

Campylobacter is the most common cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide, yet the etiology of this infection remains only partly explained. In a retrospective cohort study, we compared 213 sporadic campylobacter case-patients with 1,144 patients with negative fecal samples. Information was obtained on food history, animal contact, foreign travel, leisure activities, medical conditions, and medication use. Eating chicken, eating food from a fried chicken outlet, eating salad vegetables, drinking bottled water, and direct contact with cows or calves were all independently associated with infection. The population-attributable fractions for these risk factors explained nearly 70% of sporadic campylobacter infections. Eating chicken is a well-established risk factor, but consuming salad and bottled water are not. The association with salad may be explained by cross-contamination of food within the home, but the possibility that natural mineral water is a risk factor for campylobacter infection could have wide public health implications

Q Fever Outbreak in Industrial Setting

An outbreak of Q fever was likely caused by renovation work that aerosolized contaminated straw board

Epidemiologic Clues to SARS Origin in China

An epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) began in Foshan municipality, Guangdong Province, China, in November 2002. We studied SARS case reports through April 30, 2003, including data from case investigations and a case series analysis of index cases. A total of 1,454 clinically confirmed cases (and 55 deaths) occurred; the epidemic peak was in the first week of February 2003. Healthcare workers accounted for 24% of cases. Clinical signs and symptoms differed between children (<18 years) and older persons (>65 years). Several observations support the hypothesis of a wild animal origin for SARS. Cases apparently occurred independently in at least five different municipalities; early case-patients were more likely than later patients to report living near a produce market (odds ratio undefined; lower 95% confidence interval 2.39) but not near a farm; and 9 (39%) of 23 early patients, including 6 who lived or worked in Foshan, were food handlers with probable animal contact

Stemming the Tide of Antibiotic Resistance (STAR): A protocol for a trial of a complex intervention addressing the 'why' and 'how' of appropriate antibiotic prescribing in general practice

BACKGROUND: After some years of a downward trend, antibiotic prescribing rates in the community have tended to level out in many countries. There is also wide variation in antibiotic prescribing between general practices, and between countries. There are still considerable further gains that could be made in reducing inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, but complex interventions are required. Studies to date have generally evaluated the effect of interventions on antibiotic prescribing in a single consultation and pragmatic evaluations that assess maintenance of new skills are rare. This paper describes the protocol for a pragmatic, randomized evaluation of a complex intervention aimed at reducing antibiotic prescribing by primary care clinicians. METHODS AND DESIGN: We developed a Social Learning Theory based, blended learning program (on-line learning, a practice based seminar, and context bound learning) called the STAR Educational Program. The 'why of change' is addressed by providing clinicians in general practice with information on antibiotic resistance in urine samples submitted by their practice and their antibiotic prescribing data, and facilitating a practice-based seminar on the implications of this data. The 'how of change' is addressed through context-bound communication skills training and information on antibiotic indication and choice. This intervention will be evaluated in a trial involving 60 general practices, with general practice as the unit of randomization (clinicians from each practice to either receive the STAR Educational Program or not) and analysis. The primary outcome will be the number of antibiotic items dispensed over one year. An economic and process evaluation will also be conducted. DISCUSSION: This trial will be the first to evaluate the effectiveness of this type of theory-based, blended learning intervention aimed at reducing antibiotic prescribing by primary care clinicians. Novel aspects include feedback of practice level data on antimicrobial resistance and prescribing, use of principles from motivational interviewing, training in enhanced communication skills that incorporates context-bound experience and reflection, and using antibiotic dispensing over one year (as opposed to antibiotic prescribing in a single consultation) as the main outcome